RESEARCH INTERESTS
My book project—“Do Campaigns Matter? Negative Partisanship, Misinformation, and Motivated Reasoning"”—that challenges conventional wisdom in comparative political behavior in two important ways. Based on experimental and non-experimental evidence conducted in Mexico, Argentina, Honduras, and Panama, it finds that partisanship in Latin America is not as weak as prior comparative studies suggested. I find that the proportion of partisans was underestimated by major comparative surveys. Moreover, my study finds that even in new democracies voters are able to develop long-term partisan attachments making less vulnerable to political campaigns. These voters have built partisanship as the screen through which they observe the political world leading them to interpret new campaign information so as to reinforce their pre-campaign predispositions.
My research also identifies a mechanism of campaign influence overlooked by most comparative literature: polling information. Based on experimental and non-experimental conducted in Mexico, my study finds that polling information helps voters make strategic decisions a few days before election day making them more likely to abandon their co-partisan candidate when s/he is trailing in the polls. These vote shifts increase the proportion of swing voters in electoral studies, and gives the impression that candidates’ persuasive efforts are more consequential than they are, when in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters’ strategic behavior. This also means that previous campaign studies might have overestimated the power of campaigns to persuade voters. Empirically, some voters appear to behave in a manner very similar to persuaded voters—supporting candidates against their pre-campaign predispositions—but these vote shifts are not a product of campaign persuasion. Instead, voters decide to behave strategically given the electoral context as portrayed by electoral polling.
My book project expands on my dissertation by analyzing the role that misinformation plays in political campaigns in new democracies. In young party systems, voters can also engage in politically motivated reasoning and reinforce inaccurate beliefs or facts. Based on original surveys conducted in Mexico, I find that some voters hold political misperceptions and follow conspiracy thinking even when they are presented with the best evidence available that contradict their misperceptions. These political misperceptions reinforce voters' partisan attachments but undermine their ability to form accurate opinions. My book project also expands on my dissertation by presenting evidence on how partisanship makes some voters less likely to punish candidates' illegal behavior. Based on original survey experiments conducted in Mexico, I find that some voters—guided by partisan attachments—support candidates even when they are aware that they were funded by drug-cartels.
I am also participating in a number of collaborative research projects. For example, a survey experimental research project on corruption and voting behavior motivated by a puzzling fact: corrupt politicians win elections and are popular in many democracies in Latin America. With original survey experiments conducted in Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador and Mexico, we seek to understand the conditions under which voters punish corrupt politicians. I also participate in a survey research project at the intersection of political science and ecology about expert opinion on climate change. This project is based on an original elite survey that encompasses a sample of more than two thousand top environmental biologists.
- American and Comparative Politics.
- Survey/Experimental Methods, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior.
- Political Campaigns, Partisanship, and Motivated Reasoning.
- Misinformation, Clientelism and Vote-Buying.
- Survey Research, Expert Opinion, and Climate Change.
My book project—“Do Campaigns Matter? Negative Partisanship, Misinformation, and Motivated Reasoning"”—that challenges conventional wisdom in comparative political behavior in two important ways. Based on experimental and non-experimental evidence conducted in Mexico, Argentina, Honduras, and Panama, it finds that partisanship in Latin America is not as weak as prior comparative studies suggested. I find that the proportion of partisans was underestimated by major comparative surveys. Moreover, my study finds that even in new democracies voters are able to develop long-term partisan attachments making less vulnerable to political campaigns. These voters have built partisanship as the screen through which they observe the political world leading them to interpret new campaign information so as to reinforce their pre-campaign predispositions.
My research also identifies a mechanism of campaign influence overlooked by most comparative literature: polling information. Based on experimental and non-experimental conducted in Mexico, my study finds that polling information helps voters make strategic decisions a few days before election day making them more likely to abandon their co-partisan candidate when s/he is trailing in the polls. These vote shifts increase the proportion of swing voters in electoral studies, and gives the impression that candidates’ persuasive efforts are more consequential than they are, when in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters’ strategic behavior. This also means that previous campaign studies might have overestimated the power of campaigns to persuade voters. Empirically, some voters appear to behave in a manner very similar to persuaded voters—supporting candidates against their pre-campaign predispositions—but these vote shifts are not a product of campaign persuasion. Instead, voters decide to behave strategically given the electoral context as portrayed by electoral polling.
My book project expands on my dissertation by analyzing the role that misinformation plays in political campaigns in new democracies. In young party systems, voters can also engage in politically motivated reasoning and reinforce inaccurate beliefs or facts. Based on original surveys conducted in Mexico, I find that some voters hold political misperceptions and follow conspiracy thinking even when they are presented with the best evidence available that contradict their misperceptions. These political misperceptions reinforce voters' partisan attachments but undermine their ability to form accurate opinions. My book project also expands on my dissertation by presenting evidence on how partisanship makes some voters less likely to punish candidates' illegal behavior. Based on original survey experiments conducted in Mexico, I find that some voters—guided by partisan attachments—support candidates even when they are aware that they were funded by drug-cartels.
I am also participating in a number of collaborative research projects. For example, a survey experimental research project on corruption and voting behavior motivated by a puzzling fact: corrupt politicians win elections and are popular in many democracies in Latin America. With original survey experiments conducted in Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador and Mexico, we seek to understand the conditions under which voters punish corrupt politicians. I also participate in a survey research project at the intersection of political science and ecology about expert opinion on climate change. This project is based on an original elite survey that encompasses a sample of more than two thousand top environmental biologists.
PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS
Castro Cornejo, Rodrigo. Forthcoming. "Who is Partisan? Partisanship and Question Wording Effects in Latin America." Public Opinion Quarterly.
(with Ulises Beltrán). Forthcoming. Clientelism as GOTV Campaigning. Modern Campaigns and Vote-Buying in New Democracies. Política y Gobierno.
Botero, Sandra, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavao and David Nickerson. 2015. “Says Who? The Importance of Contextually Credible Sources for Corruption Allegations.” Political Research Quarterly. 68 (3): 493-504. PDF
Javeline, Debra, Jessica J. Hellmann, Jason S. McLachlan, Dov F. Sax, and Mark W. Schwartz and Rodrigo Castro Cornejo. 2015. “Expert Opinion on Extinction Risk and Climate Change Adaptation.” Elementa. 3(57). PDF
Javeline, Debra, Jessica Hellman, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo and Gregory Schufeldt. 2014. "Expert Opinion on Climate Change and Threats to Biodiversity," BioScience 63(8): 666-673. PDF
(with Ulises Beltrán). Forthcoming. Clientelism as GOTV Campaigning. Modern Campaigns and Vote-Buying in New Democracies. Política y Gobierno.
Botero, Sandra, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavao and David Nickerson. 2015. “Says Who? The Importance of Contextually Credible Sources for Corruption Allegations.” Political Research Quarterly. 68 (3): 493-504. PDF
Javeline, Debra, Jessica J. Hellmann, Jason S. McLachlan, Dov F. Sax, and Mark W. Schwartz and Rodrigo Castro Cornejo. 2015. “Expert Opinion on Extinction Risk and Climate Change Adaptation.” Elementa. 3(57). PDF
Javeline, Debra, Jessica Hellman, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo and Gregory Schufeldt. 2014. "Expert Opinion on Climate Change and Threats to Biodiversity," BioScience 63(8): 666-673. PDF
UNDER REVIEW
Do Electoral Polls Affect Voters' Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Mexico. R&R. (PDF).
Who Receive Electoral Gifts? It Depends on Question Wording. Experimental Evidence from Mexico (with Ulises Beltrán). R&R. (PDF)
List Experiments and Vote Buying in Latin America (with Ulises Beltrán). R&R. (PDF)
How Do Campaigns Matter (in New Democracies)? Swing Voters, Partisan Loyalties, and Party System Institutionalization (PDF).
Are All Types of Corruption Created Equal in the Eyes of Voters? Experimental Evidence from Argentina (with Sandra Botero, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavão, and David W. Nickerson).
Under Friendly Fire: An Experiment on Partisan Press, Fragmented Opposition and Voting Behavior (with Sandra Botero, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavão, and David W. Nickerson).
Who Receive Electoral Gifts? It Depends on Question Wording. Experimental Evidence from Mexico (with Ulises Beltrán). R&R. (PDF)
List Experiments and Vote Buying in Latin America (with Ulises Beltrán). R&R. (PDF)
How Do Campaigns Matter (in New Democracies)? Swing Voters, Partisan Loyalties, and Party System Institutionalization (PDF).
Are All Types of Corruption Created Equal in the Eyes of Voters? Experimental Evidence from Argentina (with Sandra Botero, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavão, and David W. Nickerson).
Under Friendly Fire: An Experiment on Partisan Press, Fragmented Opposition and Voting Behavior (with Sandra Botero, Laura Gamboa, Nara Pavão, and David W. Nickerson).
WORKING PAPERS
Is My Candidate Behind? The Poll is Not Credible. Experimental Evidence from Mexico.
Clientelism or Political Communication? Campaign Mobilization in Mexico (with Ulises Beltrán)
Why Do Voters Support Candidates Illegally Funded by Drug-Cartels? Experimental Evidence from Mexico.
Who's Right? Support for Conservative Parties in Latin America (with Peter Johannessen).
Religious Engagement, Civic Skills, and Political Participation in Latin America (With Andre Audette and Mark Brockway)
Does Candidate's Religious Affiliation Affect Vote Choice? Experimental Evidence from Mexico
Clientelism or Political Communication? Campaign Mobilization in Mexico (with Ulises Beltrán)
Why Do Voters Support Candidates Illegally Funded by Drug-Cartels? Experimental Evidence from Mexico.
Who's Right? Support for Conservative Parties in Latin America (with Peter Johannessen).
Religious Engagement, Civic Skills, and Political Participation in Latin America (With Andre Audette and Mark Brockway)
Does Candidate's Religious Affiliation Affect Vote Choice? Experimental Evidence from Mexico